Aztec, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS65 KABQ 071110 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
510 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Thurs Aug 7 2025

- There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat
  risk impacts through Friday, which may cause health issues for
  individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas
  will approach record highs.

- Gusty and potentially severe winds across western and northern
  NM through Friday from isolated to widely scattered virga
  showers and dry thunderstorms.

- Temperatures not as hot along with better shower and storm
  coverage later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

The record strong upper high over the state weakens a touch to 599
to 600 dam today. Extremely hot temperatures will continue to be the
main story across all lower elevations of the state this afternoon
with highs in the mid 90s to mid 100s. With temperatures once again
reaching around 100 across the Northwest Plateau, including
Farmington, and the middle RGV, including the ABQ Metro, as well as
reaching to around 105 across the Chaves County Plains, including
Roswell, these portions of the state are under a Heat Advisory from
12 PM to 7 PM. Once again, the risk for heat related illnesses, if
not taking the proper heat safety precautions, will be high across
these aforementioned zones and much of the eastern plains with all
other lower elevations across the rest of the forecast areas
experiencing at least a moderate risk. Finally, like yesterday, some
mid level moisture wrapping around the western and northern
periphery of the high along with natural topographic lift will allow
for the development of some scattered virga showers and isolated dry
thunderstorms across western and northern NM. This activity looks to
push east into parts of the upper and middle RGV, including ABQ and
Santa Fe, as well as northeast NM and central highlands during the
mid evening hours before tapering off shortly after sunset due to
the loss of daytime heating. The main hazards from this activity
will be strong and erratic wind gusts of up to 55 mph and dry
lightning strikes which could lead to future fire starts.

The upper high continues to weaken more to 596 dam on Friday in
response to an upper low/trough entering the northern Rockies. This
trough is around 2 standard deviations below climatology according
to the NAEFS. However, westerly flow between the base of the trough
and upper high circulation will keep temperatures really hot for
early August with no noticeable difference compared to the last 2
days. Another heat advisory will likely be needed for the ABQ Metro
and Chaves County Plains, including Roswell. The risk for heat
related illnesses will at least be moderate for all lower elevations
of the state with a high risk across the middle and lower RGV and
much of the east central and southeast plains. Some more virga
showers and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected once again
during the afternoon and evening hours on an line extending from the
Gila Mountains to the northeast corner of the state. The operational
GFS is still depicting some possible wetter showers and
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday evening across far
northeast NM due to slightly higher surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s across this part of the state. Any of this dry/wet shower
and thunderstorm activity should taper off after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Heading into the weekend, the upper high continues to weaken with
the 593 to 595 dam centroid shifting more to over the Great Basin in
southern NV, southern CA and western AZ on Sunday. This is due to
lingering troughing across the northern and central Rockies and
Great Plains as an upper low moves east and northeast from
Saskatchewan, Canada towards Hudson Bay. Wetter shower and
thunderstorm coverage, especially across the higher terrain and
adjacent highlands, will increase due to the lower heights and
subsidence and PWATs around 0.7 to 0.9 inches. As a result, the risk
for burn scar flash flooding will increase. The one corner of the
state that will likely see little if any shower and thunderstorm
activity is around the Four Corners area due to drier northwest flow
on the eastern periphery of the upper high resulting in PWATs around
0.5 inches. There is still uncertainty to the overall coverage of
shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Like last night,
the deterministic GFS depicts a wetter scenario with troughing being
more dominant over the Rockies and the state. Meanwhile, the
deterministic ECMWF shows a drier scenario with the upper high over
the Great Basin strengthening and building back east into the state
and the 595 dam centroid somewhere near the Four Corners area.
The NBM and LREF guidance continues to favor the deterministic
ECMWF scenario with scattered PoPs across the higher terrain
during the afternoon and outflow boundaries bringing some isolated
shower and storm chances to the lower elevations of central and
eastern NM during the evening. Temperatures next week will not be
as hot as this week, but still slightly above average for early to
mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A near record strong high pressure system continues to remain
over the state resulting in very hot temperatures for early
August. Thus, density altitude will be an important consideration
for smaller aircraft near complex terrain. Like yesterday, virga
showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will develop across the
northern and western high terrain mid this afternoon spreading
into some lower elevations of central and northeast NM during the
evening hours. Localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts may reach
up to 45 kts near stronger virga showers and dry thunderstorms.
Virga activity tapers off just after sunset with lingering mid
level clouds and light winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A near record strong upper high continues to remain over the state
through Friday. Some modest moisture wrapping around the western and
then northern part of the high will bring virga showers and isolated
dry thunderstorms to the western and northern high terrain each
afternoon moving into some lower elevations of central New Mexico
today through Friday. The main hazards from this activity will be
strong and erratic wind gusts of up to 55 mph and dry lightning
strikes, which could lead to future fire starts. Haze caused from
wildfire smoke in the surrounding Four Corner states will continue
to impact portions of northern New Mexico. Come this weekend, a
trough over the northern and central Rockies helps weaken and shift
the high more westward towards the Great Basin. This pattern change
will help to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage, especially
across the higher terrain and adjacent highlands. The risk for flash
flooding on any recent burn scars will increase as a result.
Ensemble guidance favors scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage
across the higher terrain and adjacent highlands as the upper high
slowly builds back east into the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  66  97  63 /   0  10  10   5
Dulce...........................  93  51  91  48 /   0  10  10   5
Cuba............................  92  61  91  58 /  20  20  10  10
Gallup..........................  95  56  94  56 /  20  20  10  10
El Morro........................  91  59  91  57 /  30  30  20  20
Grants..........................  94  59  93  58 /  30  30  20  20
Quemado.........................  91  60  91  60 /  30  20  30  30
Magdalena.......................  93  65  92  65 /  20  20  30  20
Datil...........................  90  59  90  59 /  30  20  30  20
Reserve.........................  96  57  96  56 /  30  20  40  20
Glenwood........................ 101  63 100  64 /  20  10  30  20
Chama...........................  87  53  85  50 /   5  10  10   5
Los Alamos......................  90  64  90  62 /  20  20  20   5
Pecos...........................  90  61  91  59 /  20  20  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  88  59  87  56 /  20  10  20   5
Red River.......................  78  51  78  49 /  20  10  20   5
Angel Fire......................  82  44  81  43 /  20  10  20   5
Taos............................  91  56  91  54 /  20  10  10   5
Mora............................  86  57  87  55 /  20  10  20   5
Espanola........................  96  62  96  59 /  20  10  10   5
Santa Fe........................  91  64  92  62 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  95  63  95  60 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  72  96  70 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  69  98  67 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  69 100  66 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  71  98  68 /  10  20  10  10
Belen........................... 101  66 100  65 /  10  20  10  10
Bernalillo...................... 100  69  99  66 /  10  20  10  10
Bosque Farms.................... 101  65 100  62 /  10  20  10  10
Corrales........................ 100  71  99  67 /  10  20  10  10
Los Lunas....................... 101  67 100  64 /  10  20  10  10
Placitas........................  97  68  96  66 /  10  20  10  10
Rio Rancho...................... 100  70  98  67 /  10  20  10  10
Socorro......................... 102  69 101  70 /  10  20  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  63  91  62 /  10  20  20  10
Tijeras.........................  93  65  93  64 /  10  20  20  10
Edgewood........................  94  61  93  59 /  10  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  58  95  57 /  10  20  10  10
Clines Corners..................  90  62  90  61 /  10  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  92  62  92  62 /  10  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  93  61  92  63 /  10  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  95  65  95  67 /  20  10  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  86  62  87  62 /  20  10  20  10
Capulin.........................  90  59  89  57 /  20  10  20  10
Raton...........................  94  57  93  55 /  20  10  20   5
Springer........................  95  57  95  56 /  10  10  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  90  59  91  58 /  20  20  20  10
Clayton.........................  98  68  98  65 /  10  10  10  20
Roy.............................  94  62  93  60 /  10  10  10  10
Conchas......................... 103  68 102  68 /  10  20  10  10
Santa Rosa...................... 100  65  99  65 /  10  20  10  10
Tucumcari....................... 103  68 101  67 /  10  10  10  20
Clovis.......................... 101  69 101  69 /  10  10   0  20
Portales........................ 102  69 102  70 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Sumner..................... 102  68 102  69 /  10  20  10  10
Roswell......................... 105  69 104  71 /  10   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  98  64  98  66 /  10  10  10  10
Elk.............................  93  62  93  64 /  20   5  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ201-219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71